Conclusion first PBL Monitor draft RES: realisation 35 TWh by 2030 possible yet not set in stone

One of the measures from the 2019 Dutch Climate Agreement is the generation of 35TWh from large-scale solar and wind energy on land by 2030. Thirty regions are working out plans for this in the Regional Energy Strategies (RES). In 2020, the regions submitted their draft RES offer. In October, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) calculated in an interim analysis that the quantitative sum of the RES would lead to a bid of 52.5 TWh. A further investigation by PBL concludes that the goal of 35TWh is possible, but not yet a given.

In 2020, the 30 regions had to submit their draft RES. In October of the same year, PBL concluded in a preliminary analysis that the aggregated draft RES offer was 52.5 TWh. Further exploration via an initial Monitor of the draft RES concludes an estimate for renewable electricity production in 2030 with a bandwidth of 31.2 to 45.7 TWh, and a mean value of 38.2 TWh.

Compared to the interim analysis published on October 1, 2020, the Monitor provides a further analysis and clarification of the quantitative offer of all regions together. For this analysis, PBL had available all 30 RESs, 28 network impact analyzes by Netbeheer Nederland and administrative responses in 18 regions. The Monitor provides an analysis not only of the quantitative offer, but also of aspects such as use of space, social and administrative support and energy system efficiency.

Realization of the offer surrounded by uncertainties
The Monitor provides insight into the uncertainties surrounding the realization of the offer of 52.5 TWh. About half of the offer is the production of renewable electricity from existing installations or from projects for which the resources are already available and which may be realized in the short term. The uncertainties concern the remediation of dated wind turbines before 2030 and the degree of realization of planned projects. In estimating this, the PBL has looked at the degree of realization of projects for renewable electricity production in recent years.

The other half of the offer consists of ambitions that still largely have to be made concrete. PBL provides a rough estimate of the effect on the degree of realization of these plans, summarizing all major uncertainties regarding use of space, support and energy system efficiency.

Electricity network capacity
An important uncertainty is the capacity of the electricity network. After studying the analyzes of Netbeheer Nederland, PBL has come to the estimate that, in order to achieve the target of 35 TWh, substantial additional investments in the electricity network are required. Availability of suitable workers may be an additional bottleneck. In the foreseen development of the network, realization of the concept RESs at the lower end of the bandwidth (31.2 TWh) seems feasible. But whether that is really the case can only become clear when the bids are further specified. Much depends on the structure of the offer: the size and location of projects and the ratio between electricity production from the sun and that from wind.

Need additional appointments
The Monitor draft RES provides an estimate of the target range on a national scale. The PBL notes that there are still major differences in the way in which regional bids are structured and in the availability of data at regional level. This makes it difficult to properly compare the contributions of individual regions. For a next phase in the analysis of the bids of the individual regions, clear agreements are needed about definitions to be used and data that regions use for their RES. The full report is available in Dutch. Source: PBL

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